MALAYSIA faces an over 90% chance of a 'Super El Niño' weather event starting in October 2026 as according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department. Stated that the expected timeline whereby it will start the conditions begin to intensify in October 2026 and reach the peak arrives between March and May 2027. Reported that duration of dry weather and high heat may last until June 2027. The main weather risks firstly is The High Heat where the temperatures may pass the old 1998 record of 40.1 degrees Celsius. The average normal annual temperature in Malaysia is about 25.4°C (77.7°F) and the temperature breakdown of the Daily Highs usually range from 31°C to 33°C (88°F to 91°F) during the day. The Daily Lows usually drop to 23°C to 24°C (73°F to 75°F) at night and at the highland areas in a places like the Cameroon Highlsn, Phsng stted that they are much cooler, averaging 14°C to 25°C (57°F to 77°F). In the same issue, the humidity stays high year-round, typically around 80% or more in which makes it feel warmer than the actual reading. Issu on Low Rainfall in which sarts of the country will see below-average rainfall and dry soil. About the Haze the dry air raises the risk of open fires and transboundary haze snd for water and crops whereby the low water levels can strain local dams, water quality and farm yields. Expected that El Niño will bring prolonged hotter and drier weather to Malaysia, with the temperatures potentially exceeding record highs above 40°C and rainfall dropping by up to 60% in some regions. This article in "Anim Agriculture Technology" blog I share a report on the comeng El-Nino potential facts for references.
There are an issue of 'Extreme Heat and Health Risks' where the record of maximum temperatures may pass Malaysia's all-time high of 40.1°C set in 1998. The most vulnerable affected groups are children, the elderly, and outdoor workers face higher risks of heatstroke and dehydration. Tere are also to the school and work disruptions in which the schools may close if local temperatures hit 37°C or due to haze. The issue on 'Water Shortages' due to lower rainfall puts pressure on river flows, dam levels, and household water supplies im-ppact the crop yields brcsuse th reduced rain and dry soil threaten agricultural sectors like palm oil production and many other food crops. The scariest issue are 'Haze and Environment Forest Fires' due to thr dry conditions increase the risk of local fires and transboundary haze from neighboring regions. Then the Air Quality turn poorer air quality raises risks for people with asthma and other respiratory issues. Later affect the Energy Costs because of the longer use of air conditioning drives up electricity bills for homes and businesses. Other potential risks are the Super El Nino could bring as high as 40°C temperatures to Malaysia by early 2027. Malaysia faces an extreme heatwave with temperatures potentially reaching 40 degrees Celsius between January and May next year due to an impending Super El Nino phenomenon. The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) said the probability of the phenomenon occurring is approaching 100 per cent, based on climate models from international observation and research centres. MetMalaysia said that from the historical meteorological records associate strong El Nino episodes with elevated temperatures, dry conditions, and severe haze risks. Reported tht the previous Super El Nino events in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 recorded daily maximum temperatures far more extreme than usual. Notable high records include 40.1 degrees Celsius at the Chuping Meteorological Station in Perlis on April 9, 1998, and 39.3 degrees Celsius at the Batu Embun Meteorological Station in Jerantut, Pahang, on April 10, 2016. MetMalaysia estimates a 70 per cent probability that the intensity of the upcoming El Nino will exceed any episode recorded since 1950. The northern and inland areas of the Peninsular, alongside the interior of Sabah and Sarawak, are expected to experience higher-than-average temperatures and an increased risk of heatwaves starting from the end of the Northeast Monsoon through May 2027. Based on the latest projections, more meteorological stations in northern Peninsular Malaysia are likely to record temperatures reaching 40 degrees Celsius during the peak dry period. MetMalaysia also warned of an increased risk of forest fires and haze due to the hotter and drier conditions and the risks of fires and air pollution could increase. The department added that prolonged high temperatures elevate the risk of heatwaves and pose health hazards, particularly for children, the elderly, and outdoor workers. Reduced rainfall and extended dry spells may stress water resources, including catchments and dams, while impacting water-sensitive agricultural and industrial sectors. The prolonged dry climate renders vegetation more flammable, escalating the risk of peatland and forest fires alongside local and transboundary haze.
Reported that an extreme El Niño event threatens Malaysia's agricultural sector with severe dry spells, intense heat, and a potential sharp drop in domestic crop and livestock production. For me the major Impacts on Malaysian Agriculture include Risks in Rice and Paddy Output in which the domestic rice production in key granary areas could face significant drops due to dry weather and water stress, raising national food security concerns as Malaysia relies on imports for nearly half its supply. Second impact are in the serious Palm Oil and Commodities Industry in which the prolonged hot weather and reduced rainfall lower yields and decrease fresh fruit bunch (FFB) size, though the drop in production typically manifests several months after the peak dry conditions begin. The El Niño causes hotter and drier weather that reduces palm oil yields in Malaysia after a time lag of 9 to 12 months, which drives up crude palm oil (CPO) prices. The study found that the production impacts and The Delayed Effect due to the weather changes do not hurt output right away; the stress on trees shows up nine (9) to twelve *12) months later. Issue on 'Lower Yields' when the dry soil and high heat cause bunch failure, floral abortion, and more male flowers, leading to fewer fresh fruit bunches (FFB). As a historical drops in a past record whereby the 'Super El Niño' in 2015 cut Malaysia’s palm oil production by 13% (2.6 million tonnes) the following year. Short-Term Benefit: Brief dry spells can actually help harvest work and truck transport by keeping plantation ground dry and firm. It will affect the price and market of thr Higher CPO prices as expected supply shortages push crude palm oil prices above RM4,700 per tonne. The stronger demand for the higher energy costs and biofuel mandates (such as Indonesia's biodiesel rules) add support to vegetable oil markets. For the mitigating factors the monsoon rains late in the year can restore soil moisture and ease the dry weather stress.
Then there are also Risks in Livestock Stress whereby the extreme temperatures cause heat stress in farm animals like cattle, which struggle to regulate body temperature, lowering overall farm health and productivity. El Niño brings hotter and drier weather to Malaysia, creating serious biological and financial challenges for the local livestock industry. The risks on Direct Animal Health and Productivity due to 'Heat Stress' in which the high temperatures cause severe physical stress because farm animals especially cattle cannot sweat efficiently to cool down (See photo above). There are also issue on 'Lower Feed Intake and Output' when heat stress forces animals to eat less feed and drink more water, leading to slower weight gain, higher mortality in poultry, and lower overall production. For the 'Plummeting Dairy Yields' for the dairy cattle suffer greatly because Malaysia's hot climate exceeds their optimal comfort zone (around 15°C); daily milk yields can drop sharply from roughly 40 litres down to 15 - 20 litres. El-nono expected to cause 'Poor Reproduction' where the extreme heat and free radicals reduce the quality and vitality of livestock sperm, lowering fertilization and pregnancy rates. For the feed and production costs are disrupted due to the global Grain Yields in which the dry weather damages overseas harvests of corn and soybean, which are vital ingredients for animal feed. Finally El-Nino cause 'Higher Import Bills: Malaysia relies heavily on imported feed grains from countries like Brazil, Argentina, and India; global price spikes directly inflate local production costs. The most hidden risks are the farm mitigation and national security in which the 'Cooling Technologies' especisly for the poultry farmers combat extreme temperatures using closed-house systems equipped with exhaust fans, cooling pads, ice supplements, and vitamins (See photo below). Production drops and high operational costs put upward pressure on market food prices for consumers, prompting government oversight via the National Food Security Council. In the case of water and input costs the depleted reservoirs and dams strain irrigation systems, while high global fuel and fertilizer expenses compound financial pressures on local farmers. Thanks.... By,
M Anem,
Senior Agronomist Expert,
Putrajaya,
Malaysia.
(September 2026).
