EL-NINO WORSENS THE FOOD SUPPLY

WHAT A SERIOUS EL-NINO WORSENS the plight of Asia’s rice belt especially in Asi region are discussed in this article. The dry spell is sweeping across Asia’s rice fields, dealing another blow to farmers grappling with steep fuel and fertiliser prices triggered by the war in Iran and godzilla El-nino issue. Reported that from Vietnam to the Philippines, production of the region’s most important food staple is under threat as a strengthening El Nino prolongs dry weather. That includes India, the world’s top grower and exporter, where the crucial monsoon rains that began in June are running about a sixth lower than normal so far. The lower harvests risk driving up food prices, fanning inflation at a time when economies are coping with the fallout from the war. Thailand rice prices, an Asian benchmark, recently touched an 18-month high, and the most-actively traded futures in Chicago are up about 40% this year as supply concerns intensify. According to a farmers that was so worried known as Nguyen Van Trung said at the edge of his 1ha rice paddy in central Vietnam he have already applied fertiliser three times but the rice just won’t grow because there’s not enough water (See photo above). Two months of drought have already withered the water-intensive crop, yellowing fields in parts of central Vietnam. Rain finally came this month, but some farmers said it’s too little and too late. Rice farming is no longer profitable when the grain in Quang Tri province with his family. This article in "Anim Agriculture Technology" blog I share my concern about the impact of El-Nino risks worsens for the food supply in Asia.

The issue of using fertiliser, plowing and harvesting have all become more expensive this year in 2026 as claimed by many paddy farmers in Southeast Asia and Asia. Reported that for the rice growers, the drought is more than just a spell of bad weather and with the war driving costs higher, many are unable to afford the extra irrigation and investment needed to protect their crops as they enter a critical growth phase. For me the combination of a drier monsoon, higher groundwater pumping costs and lower fertiliser use poses the biggest risk to this year’s harvest, according to the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) located in Philippines. IRRI study found that individually, many of these shocks may be not in manageable situation as quoted by a senior scientist at the institute but collectively, they threaten rice production in major rice production country. Ample global inventories have capped prices until now but that support may be shifting. Reported that the US Department of Agriculture has trimmed its estimate for season-ending stockpiles and expects production this season to decline for the first time in 11 years. In central Luzon, the Philippines’ largest and most populous island, late June 2025 typically heralds the beginning of the rice-planting season and this year, however it was different. For farmer known as Joe Pangalilingan, who employs five people on his 12-ha rice farm, was forced to push back sowing due to a shortage of water to flood the fields and he are already experiencing El Nino whereby farmers didn’t know how to prepare for this kind of calamity. Isuue on more expensive fuel and fertiliser are magnifying the challengesm while global fertiliser prices have eased recently and farmers are yet to benefit. Hos friend known as Iya Abrazado, who is part of a local cooperative that farms 330 ha on Luzon, said she resorted to 'dry-seeding' her field because she could not afford diesel for the irrigation pump. The method entails planting rice directly in non-flooded farms, instead of the usual two-step transplanting of seedlings that consumes more water. Abrazado is also using less fertiliser and turning to cheaper organic nutrients. Hotter and drier conditions are forecast to spread across Asia as El Nino intensifies over the next few months, threatening crops in some of the world’s top rice-growing regions.

Reported that El Nino typically weakens the summer monsoon in most of South Asia, threatening rain-fed crops such as rice and corn. Drought risks stretch from Pakistan and India through mainland South-East Asia and eastward to Indonesia and the Philippines, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said in late June. Governments are concerned about shortages that may crimp exports. Vietnam has warned that a severe El Nino may affect rice crops over 350,000ha. The Philippines and Malaysia are also bracing for drops in output in the coming year. In India, rice sowing so far this season is about 1% lower than last year, according to farm ministry data, as key growing states are facing a rainfall deficit as of July, the main planting month. Rice production in rain-fed areas may be lower because of the monsoon deficit while farmers in irrigated states may have to draw more groundwater to protect their crops, said Siraj Hussain, India’s former farm secretary. Still, overall output is unlikely to drop by more than 5%, he added. In Indonesia, a prolonged dry spell may stoke food inflation and as concerns over supply intensify and exporters face rising costs, the balance of risks increasingly points toward firmer prices over the coming 12 to 18 months.  The threats, however and it extend deeper. In many of developing Asia, where tens of millions of smallholders operate on razor-thin margins, each climate shock arrives with fewer financial buffers and higher risks to livelihoods and food security. A farmer might first lose crops, then livestock, and with that their entire livelihood with cascading impacts of multiple crises already evident, there is an urgent need to act early. Aid agencies warn that this year’s El Nino threat is being amplified by record global temperatures and growing geopolitical instability. Even a moderate drought can prove devastating in low and middle income countries, or those facing unrest and chronic hunger. Myanmar is among the countries most exposed to catastrophic weather events. The FAO and World Food Programme have identified it as a hunger hotspot, where climate extremes are compounding an already severe humanitarian crisis. With a lot at stake, farmers, scientists and governments are rethinking how to grow the region’s most important staple crop in a more challenging environment. The IRRI is promoting climate-resilient rice varieties. Agritech startup Rize is scaling up techniques that can reduce water consumption by as much as 30%, said chief executive officer Dhruv Sawhney. Back in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, which produces more than half of the country’s rice, rising costs have forced farmers like 50-year-old Tran Thanh Vu to cut production or switch to crops such as coconut. More farmers haven’t got enough money to invest yet and they are more worried about price fluctuations than climate change respectively.

In Malaysia a quwstion on 'Super El Niño: How Food Secure is Malaysia' discussed repeatedly. The strongest El Niño in recorded history has formed in the Pacific Ocean. Historically, an El Niño, which contributes to global warming, had relatively little impact on food security in Malaysia. Within Southeast Asia the major impacts have been drought in Indonesia, the Philippines, and southern Thailand, but Malaysia’s well-irrigated rice lands tend to produce at normal levels. However, a major impact on Malaysia is through the cost of rice imports because the world rice price almost always rises during significant El Niño episodes. The current ‘Super El Niño’ could well impact Malaysia through pricier rice imports, but the country’s status as a ‘multistaple food system’ should protect it from serious nutritional problems. The most intuitive way to measure a multistaple food system is to calculate the ‘starchy staple ratio (SSR)’, the sum total of starchy staples relative to total caloric intake. In 2023, the last year for which data are available from the UN Food Balance Sheet (FBS), the starchy staple ratio for Malaysia was 0.36. It is composed of calories consumed from four starchy staples (rice, 700.5 kcal/cap/day; wheat, 300.4; maize, 51.7; and potatoes, 33.3, for a total of 1,085.9 kcal/cap/day). Average caloric intake by Malaysian consumers in 2023 was 3,000 kcal/cap/day so the SSR was 0.36. The starchy staple consumption in Malaysia is actually characterized by diversity and there are four significant commodities, one of which is completely imported (wheat). In sharp contrast, the SSR in Bangladesh is 0.80, of which 0.77 comes from rice (potatoes are eaten as a vegetable, but still count as a starchy staple). The SSR can also change significantly over time. Bennett’s Law stipulates that the SSR declines with rising income because of an ‘innate desire for diversity in the human diet’ (Bennett, 1954). Indonesia has a food system with many similarities to that of Malaysia. In 1976, the SSR for Indonesia was 0.77. By 2023, the country’s diet had diversified significantly and the SSR was 0.59. The reality for Malaysia is that four significant starchy staples give its consumers considerable flexibility to change their consumption patterns when food prices change. Although this reality complicates efforts to manage Malaysia’s food economy especially efforts to keep food prices stable it does provide considerable resilience to the country’s consumers as they cope with rapidly changing food prices. This resilience will be extremely important as the full brunt of the Super El Niño is felt throughout Southeast Asia. Although Indonesia and the Philippines are usually the hardest hit from typical El Niños, Malaysia will not be spared from this one. Domestic rice production is likely to decline, at least slightly, and additional rice imports will be needed. The most recent United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) analysis of the world rice market was released on 10 July 2026 (USDA, 2026). The results of most interest to Malaysia are shown in Table 1. The projection for marketing year 2026–27 is quite reassuring. The Philippines imported extra rice last year and expects to maintain its reserves in the coming year. It seems unlikely that there will be significant ‘panicked buying’ even in the face of the severe El Niño that is now underway. Thanks...

By,

M Anem,

Senior Agronomist Expert,

Putrajaua,

Malaysia.

(September 2026).